To Bunt or Not to Bunt: The Great Debate

There has been an on-going debate over the past few years between writers here at StartWedman over the effectiveness of the sacrifice bunt. While I am firmly on one side of the fence, I will try to remain objective in my focus and analysis of the sacrifice bunt as a great and beneficial move for any club ever in the history of the game. Get it?

While I am almost positive that I stand alone on the pro-bunting side, we all do have to agree that whether they should bunt or not is extremely relative to the situation, who is batting, who comes up next, and what time of the year games are being played. While we are currently having a bunting argument over the World Series game last night, if this game was played in April, we would be idiots for caring.

For the sake of an even playing field, lets all assume that there is a runner on first with no outs when explaining/defending any of out points.

My pro-bunting argument mostly lands on the fact that runners are more likely to score if they are on second base rather than first. Regardless of the batter's batting average or power, it is easier to hit a single than a double, triple, or homerun. Just ask Craig Counsell.

I also tend to believe that there are most "good" possible outcomes when bunting the runner over than the "bad" outcomes of letting the batter swing away. For example, there are really only two "bad" outcomes of the sacrifice bunt. 1) You are handing the other team a free out (which I do not deny) and 2) you are taking the bat out 1 or more of your batters' hands. However, there are more "good" outcomes of the sacrifice bunt. 1) You move the runner into scoring position, 2) a speedy batter could potentially beat out a throw, or 3) the fielder commits an error.

So if you bunt, there are multiple chances for it to be a successful or unsuccessful move. No argument there. But I still believe that it is still a better option than letting someone swing away. With a runner on first and no outs, a few "good" outcomes can happen. Either the batter can get on base (ie. hit, walk, error etc.) or the batter can subsequently move the runner over in some other form. But remember, baseball is a game where some of the best players tend to fail 70% of the time. A fly ball and the runner stays on first with one out instead of standing on second. A ground ball and you either end up with a runner on first with one out or a double play. A strike out leaves you in the same boat.

Obviously, you aren't going to have Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder lay down a bunt, but putting a runner in scoring position for players of that caliber increases the likelihood of scoring a run. In the case of Elvis Andrus and the at bat that caused this, Andrus laid down a bunt and moved Ian Kinsler over into scoring position for arguably the best two hitters on the Rangers. While it did not pan out, it gave them the best chance to take the lead. The inning would have taken on a different feel had Andrus grounded into a double play.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Never thought this would be happening in mid-August.

Cards in five.

Extreme Hate Edition: Gerardo Parra

I have never tried to hide my true feelings for Gerardo Parra. Just look at him. He looks like someone from a JR Tolkien series that stole a Dbacks jersey and somehow made his way onto the field. Not to mention, since I am your resident Diamondbacks expert, and #1 fan, I will tell you who you can and cannot hate in Arizona.

While my feelings about Gerardo are nothing new, I found myself at an all-time low when I tried to theorize that maybe Juan Pierre would be a better option for the Diamondbacks left field situation. However, let's not forget, Juan Pierre is never a better option. . .than anyone. . .ever. I actually tried to argue with people on the comment section of the Arizona Diamondbacks beat writer's blog about justifying Pierre over Parra. That is when I knew. . . I had just hit a new level of hatred for a baseball player. Did I really just say that I wanted a slap hitting left fielder that can't throw the ball farther than my sister? Do I really want someone who doesn't know how to properly size their clothing or own a mirror or wear their hat correctly?

Maybe it is my resentment against the Diamondbacks for letting Conor Jackson go after his losing battle with Valley Fever. Maybe it's the fact that Adam Dunn never panned out. Maybe I still feel that hate for whoever plays LF ever since Eric Byrnes left the Dbacks to go play softball in Seattle. Couple that with the fact that Parra hasn't done anything offensively in Arizona in his first three years, you get a deep down loathing for someone I have never met.

Ever since arriving in Arizona three years ago, Parra has managed to hit 16 home runs. While that may seem awesome to the average fan, please remember that he is hitting in Phoenix. Chase Field ranks second in the league in altitude and the Diamondbacks have been ranked top five in home runs the past few years. Any one of the writers here at StartWedman, aside from Cooly, could hit more than 16 home runs at Chase Field in a given year, let alone three years combined. His .292 batting average is extremely deceiving as well. It might look nice, but A) he chokes in pressure situations, B) he batted 8th most of the season in front of the pitcher, and C) he looks like a gremlin.

My main argument against these bloggers was how bad Parra's defense was this year. While they all argued that he has a cannon of an arm (and I will agree with that), I wasn't sure if they watched the games I watched all year. With my MLB.tv package, I was easily able to see more than 60 Diamondbacks games this year and during each one, I ended up tweeting to most of the Dbacks personnel trying to get rid of Parra. He has 13 errors over his first three seasons which by itself, is not very good. For comparison sake, Nate McLouth has 13 errors in his 7 year career. What this stat doesn't take into account are the mental errors. At least once a week there was a Diamondbacks highlight of Parra running in circles looking for the ball in the air. Multiple times did he dive for a ball that was well out of reach. TERRIBLE, AWFUL, defense from someone that everyone seems to love but me.

The worst part about it is that fact that he is only 24 years old and there is no end in site. The Diamondbacks top LF prospect is still 2+ years away from the majors and the Dbacks brass seems to love him. Maybe it's because he is marketable to the surrounding community, but it is not for his baseball ability. So please, give me anyone else. . .even Juan Pierre. I can't go through another season with Gizmo for a left fielder.

Coming Soon: Ronny Cedeno

2011 Start Wedman MVP Voting

Time to show our support for the democratic system around here again and decide who ultimately deserves the MVP. Since our opinions are just as dumb as those of the typical BBWAA member, I like to think that last year's winners, Jose Bautista and Joey Votto, were more honored to receive our first inaugural MVP award. And once again, shenanigans are about to be had.

The process remains the same as last year with the writers of this great site contributing their votes and Fangraphs offering a WAR buffer vote to counteract any Steve Bartman-esque nominations. The only difference is that there were only four voters instead of five this year. First place votes will be in parentheses next to the player.

We pride ourselves in being gentlemen through and through here at Start Wedman, so we will allow the oldest (and worst) of the two leagues to go first. And the 2011 Start Wedman NL MVP award goes to...

1	Matt Kemp (4)	47
2	Ryan Braun (1)	43
3	Justin Upton	27
4	Roy Halladay	25
5	Albert Pujols	19
6	Joey Votto	17
7	Jose Reyes	15
8	Clayton Kershaw	12
9	Lance Berkman	12
10	Troy Tulowitzki	8
11	Bruce Chen	8
12	Cameron Maybin	6
13	Dan Uggla	5
14	Cliff Lee	5
15	Prince Fielder	5
16	Starlin Castro	5
17	Emilio Bonifacio	3
18	Logan Morrison	3
19	Brandon Phillips	2
20	Michael Morse	2
21	Nyjer Morgan	2
22	Shane Victorino	1
23	Rick Ankiel	1
24	Michael Bourn	1
25	Andrew McCutchen	1

After leading the Dodgers to a season one game above break-even, Matt Kemp has taken the award with his off the charts season. I was the only one who slotted Braun above Kemp, mainly because I believe that his season mattered more since he was on a playoff team not cleaning up against the scrubs of the NL West. Plus, I don't see Kemp as the type of person who would be able to endure this sort of joking around. And that's what I ultimately want in an MVP candidate - a bro with a sense of humor.

Although the biggest item to note is that Bruce Chen received 8 points despite never donning an NL uniform this year. But I allowed the vote to stand, unlike Fangraphs. Democracy rules!

Let's see how Chen fairs in the AL MVP vote. Could he take home the award?

1	Jose Bautista (2)	40
2	Jacoby Ellsbury (1)	39
3	Miguel Cabrera	34
4	Justin Verlander (1)	28
5	Curtis Granderson	25
6	Dustin Pedroia	18
7	Ian Kinsler	16
8	Bruce Chen	11
9	Josh Hamilton (1)	10
10	Michael Young	10
11	CC Sabathia	7
12	Melky Cabrera	7
13	Ben Zobrist	5
14	Adam Jones	5
15	Adrian Gonzalez	5
16	Brandon Allen	4
17	Paul Konerko	4
18	Adam Dunn	3
19	Alex Gordon	2
20	Coco Crisp	1
22	James Shields	1

Well, fiddlesticks. Sorry, Bruce Chen; so close though with your 8th place finish. Instead, Jose Bautista takes home his second straight Start Wedman AL MVP award by another single point, over Jacoby Ellsbury this time.

And once again, the AL voting has been lampooned by our quality writers. First, Josh Hamilton received one single first place vote, which amounted to his only vote; I hope something similar happens in the real MVP voting sometime. Despite all the hype, Start Wedman clearly does not support Justin Verlander's bid to Eckersley the awards this year. Brandon Allen is flattered. Alex Gordon's vote is actually not a joke vote; he was tenth in WAR this year in the American League. And finally, Adam Dunn probably did have the greatest impact of any one player on his team's season, so he receives his deserving points.

Congratulations once again to Jose Bautista as well as newcomer to the MVP posse, Matt Kemp. I would love to get you two awards and send them your way, but this blog kind of fails to create revenues for itself.

Better luck next year, Bruce Chen!

Pointless Analysis, Part 2 of likely 4

Now that the season has fully wrapped up, the time has come to apply some more Pointless Analysis. Luckily, this time, I will refrain from jinxing any remaining teams, sorry Braves and Red Sox.

Today's session is a nice and easy appetizer for the more intense waste of time I will bother with in the next two posts. Two quick comparisons of my previous, early season predictions to the finalized standings, in order of final win/loss record find their way to the menu today. The two main reasons for this are to one, figure out well my process predicting the final standings, and two, add to the pointlessness of this entire endeavor since baseball's unbalanced schedule makes a one through thirty ranking of the teams' records fairly pointless.

When I ultimately compared the final standings to my original predictions, here are the five biggest winners and losers based on the number of rankings spots they jumped or fell, respectively:

WINNERS
1. Arizona Diamondbacks +21
2. Milwaukee Brewers +17
3. Detroit Tigers +14
4. Cleveland Indians +12
5. Toronto Blue Jays +9

LOSERS
1. Minnesota Twins -19
T2. Colorado Rockies -17
T2. Chicago White Sox -17
T4. San Diego Padres -14
T4. Baltimore Orioles -14

In addition, the "worst player" process correctly predicted the final standings of three teams (Astros, Angels, and Rays). When looking at the losers are winners, for the most part, the most surprising teams (Diamondbacks, Indians, Blue Jays) and biggest disappointments (Twins, Rockies, White Sox) overall based on anyone's initial predictions all make an appearance. So the "worst player" ranking system was unable to identify those unexpected results. The system also proves that no matter his best efforts, Mark Kotsay was unable to hold back the Brewers this year.

For the second course, I decided to take the ultimate WAR rankings of my "worst players" and compare those to the final rankings as well, just to check and see if the players I chose held some sort of magic theory that could predict the final win/loss standings. Much to my surprise, that also failed.

Here are the biggest winners and losers using that method of comparison:

WINNERS
1. Tampa Bay Rays (Dan Johnson, funny enough) +23
2. St. Louis Cardinals (Miguel Batista) +21
3. Philadelphia Phillies (Pete Orr) +20
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (Melvin Mora) +18
5. Detroit Tigers (Carlos Guillen) +17

LOSERS
1. Houston Astros (Carlos Lee) -29
2. Baltimore Orioles (Derrek Lee) -23
3. Minnesota Twins (Jim Thome) -20
4. New York Mets (Chris Capuano) -17
T5. Colorado Rockies (Jason Giambi) -15
T5. Oakland Athletics (David DeJesus) -15

One team came out spot on with no difference at all, the Atlanta Braves with Brooks Conrad. Again, there is a slight, but unsurprising trend. The good teams with terrible years from their "worst players" jumped into the winners category while bad teams with (relatively) great years from their "worst players" fell into the losers category. I am also constantly amazed at how Carlos Lee and the Astros keep screwing everything up since Lee posted a 3.2 WAR, which actually was the highest on the dead last Astros team. I think that if it wasn't for him and his terrible team, things would be far more stabilized.

Hopefully these two quick bits of analysis wet your pallet for the rest of the Pointless Analysis that will follow in the next week or so. Stay tuned.